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We Told You So! A report on No Contest Elections 2002 predictions

Fairvote statements

For immediate release
November 8, 2002
Contact: Tony Solgard, (612) 724-5540,

tony@solgard.com

Minneapolis, MN -- The results of over half of state
legislative races were a foregone conclusion. That was the prediction of
FairVote Minnesota's No-Contest Elections 2002, released a month before
the elections. It turns out that the predictions were accurate nearly 100
percent of the time.

"At the same time that the entire nation was watching the
nail-biter for the U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota, there was a non-event taking
place farther down the ballot," said Tony Solgard, author of the report.

The report found that 55 percent of Senate seats and 56
percent of House seats are "safe" for one party or the other based on difference
between DFL and GOP average party strength measured by a sample of statewide
elections. Some are so secure as to be virtually "Untouchable," and the "Most
Untouchable" legislators were identified in the report.

All of the "Untouchable" legislators were reelected. Most
of the "Vulnerable" legislators were defeated. More significantly, the report
accurately predicted the winners in 35 out of 37 noncompetitive Senate elections
and in 73 out of 75 noncompetitive House races, an accuracy rate of 94.6 percent
and 97.3 percent, respectively. The report said a month ahead of the election
that the prospects for the Republicans were bright. Now we know that this
prediction was on the mark. In fact, the predictions were cautious and could
have been more aggressive without sacrificing accuracy, as the correlation
between party strength and election victory held firm well below the 10 percent
spread used to make the predictions.

In open seats, the report was right in 20 out of 21 House
elections (95.2%) and 11 out of 11 Senate seats -- 100%! In the incumbent pairings
due to redistricting, the report "batted a thousand" in predicting three House
pairings and the only Senate incumbent match-up.

What's the point? Competitive elections are important to
the quality of our democracy. If we don't have them, we sacrifice several
important principles.

Voters should be able to affect the outcome of an
election. A shift in voter sentiment should result in a corresponding shift in
the composition of the legislature. That does not happen very clearly or
directly in noncompetitive elections.

Legislators elected from noncompetitive districts are not
structurally accountable to the voters and can become unresponsive to the
interests of constituents.

Political power is tied to geography, penalizing
competitive areas and the state as a whole.

The state becomes Balkanized into political regions where
one party has no motivation to consider the interests of areas dominated by
the rival party.

The real campaign is directed toward swing voters in
swing districts, leaving most voters feeling like politics is not about issues
that affect them.

Taken together, these effects of noncompetitive elections
reduce voter turnout.

The report is available at

../resources/publications/nce2002.pdf.

FairVote Minnesota is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization
working for better representation, accountability, discourse, and participation
by educating Minnesotans about the impact voting systems have on the quality of
our democracy. The organization promotes voting systems that have been
demonstrated to improve the quality of democracy as measured by criteria such as
political competitiveness. These include instant runoff voting in single-winner
elections and proportional representation for councils, legislatures, and the
Congress. For more information, see

http://www.FairVoteMN.org.

FairVote Minnesota works closely with the Washington
DC-based Center for Voting and Democracy, whose Monopoly Politics report
assessing the competitiveness of U.S. Congressional elections inspired
No-Contest Elections. The Center's report is available at

http://www.fairvote.org.

	Number of races predicted	Number of correct predictions	Percent accuracy
For all seats
House	75	73	97.3%
Senate	37	35	94.6%
For open seats
House	21	20	95.2%
Senate	11	11	100.0%
For paired incumbents
House	3	3	100.0%
Senate	1	1	100.0%

	House	Senate
Most Ã¢â‚¬ËœUntouchableÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ legislators elected	10 out of 10	5 out of 5
Most Vulnerable legislators defeated	5 out of 8*	3 out of 5**

*Two of the ten representatives
originally listed in this category (Richard Mulder in 20A and John Tuma in 25B)
were not on the general election ballot, though their party caucus reported to
us that they were. Thus, only eight could be included in this analysis.

**One of the senators in the Most
Vulnerable category who was reelected in spite of being statistically vulnerable
was Sheila Kiscaden, who merited a large footnote in the report's discussion
section.

House District	Incumbent's party, open seat, or paired incumbents	Predicted Winner	Accuracy
01A	GOP	Not called	Not called
01B	DFL	Not called	Not called
02A	Open	Not called	Not called
02B	Open	Not called	Not called
03A	DFL	DFL	Right
03B	DFL	DFL	Right
04A	GOP	Not called	Not called
04B	GOP	Not called	Not called
05A	DFL	DFL	Right
05B	DFL	DFL	Right
06A	Open	DFL	Right
06B	DFL	DFL	Right
07A	DFL	DFL	Right
07B	Paired	DFL	Right
08A	DFL	DFL	Right
08B	DFL	Not called	Not called
09A	Open	Not called	Not called
09B	DFL	Not called	Not called
10A	GOP	GOP	Right
10B	Open	GOP	Right
11A	GOP	Not called	Not called
11B	DFL	Not called	Not called
12A	GOP	Not called	Not called
12B	GOP	Not called	Not called
13A	Open	Not called	Not called
13B	DFL	Not called	Not called
14A	Open	Not called	Not called
14B	GOP	Not called	Not called
15A	GOP	GOP	Right
15B	DFL	Not called	Not called
16A	GOP	Not called	Not called
16B	Paired	GOP	Right
17A	GOP	Not called	Not called
17B	Open	Not called	Not called
18A	GOP	GOP	Right
18B	Open	Not called	Not called
19A	GOP	GOP	Right
19B	Open	GOP	Right
20A	Open	DFL	Right
20B	Open	Not called	Not called
21A	GOP	Not called	Not called
21B	Open	GOP	Right
22A	DFL	Not called	Not called
22B	GOP	Not called	Not called
23A	Paired	Not called	Not called
23B	DFL	Not called	Not called
24A	GOP	Not called	Not called
24B	Open	Not called	Not called
25A	Open	Not called	Not called
25B	Open	Not called	Not called
26A	GOP	GOP	Right
26B	GOP	Not called	Not called
27A	GOP	Not called	Not called
27B	Open	DFL	Wrong
28A	GOP	Not called	Not called
28B	GOP	GOP	Right
29A	Open	GOP	Right
29B	GOP	GOP	Right
30A	Open	GOP	Right
30B	GOP	GOP	Right
31A	DFL	Not called	Not called
31B	GOP	Not called	Not called
32A	GOP	GOP	Right
32B	GOP	GOP	Right
33A	GOP	GOP	Right
33B	GOP	GOP	Right
34A	Open	GOP	Right
34B	Open	GOP	Right
35A	Open	GOP	Right
35B	GOP	GOP	Right
36A	GOP	GOP	Right
36B	Open	Not called	Not called
37A	GOP	GOP	Right
37B	GOP	GOP	Right
38A	GOP	GOP	Right
38B	Open	GOP	Right
39A	DFL	Not called	Not called
39B	Open	Not called	Not called
40A	GOP	GOP	Right
40B	DFL	GOP	Wrong
41A	GOP	GOP	Right
41B	GOP	GOP	Right
42A	Open	GOP	Right
42B	GOP	GOP	Right
43A	GOP	GOP	Right
43B	GOP	GOP	Right
44A	Paired	Not called	Not called
44B	Open	Not called	Not called
45A	DFL	Not called	Not called
45B	DFL	Not called	Not called
46A	GOP	Not called	Not called
46B	DFL	Not called	Not called
47A	Paired	GOP	Right
47B	Open	GOP	Right
48A	GOP	GOP	Right
48B	GOP	GOP	Right
49A	Open	GOP	Right
49B	GOP	Not called	Not called
50A	DFL	Not called	Not called
50B	DFL	GOP	Right
51A	GOP	Not called	Not called
51B	DFL	Not called	Not called
52A	GOP	Not called	Not called
52B	GOP	GOP	Right
53A	GOP	GOP	Right
53B	Open	Not called	Not called
54A	DFL	Not called	Not called
54B	GOP	Not called	Not called
55A	DFL	Not called	Not called
55B	DFL	Not called	Not called
56A	GOP	GOP	Right
56B	Open	GOP	Right
57A	Open	DFL	Right
57B	Open	Not called	Not called
58A	DFL	DFL	Right
58B	Open	DFL	Right
59A	DFL	DFL	Right
59B	DFL	DFL	Right
60A	DFL	DFL	Right
60B	Open	DFL	Right
61A	DFL	DFL	Right
61B	DFL	DFL	Right
62A	DFL	DFL	Right
62B	DFL	DFL	Right
63A	Open	Not called	Not called
63B	DFL	Not called	Not called
64A	DFL	DFL	Right
64B	DFL	DFL	Right
65A	Open	DFL	Right
65B	DFL	DFL	Right
66A	Open	DFL	Right
66B	DFL	DFL	Right
67A	DFL	DFL	Right
67B	DFL	DFL	Right

Senate District	Incumbent's party, open seat, or paired incumbents	Predicted winner	Accuracy
01	DFL	Not called	Not called
02	Open	Not called	Not called
03	Open	DFL	Right
04	Open	Not called	Not called
05	DFL	DFL	Right
06	Open	DFL	Right
07	DFL	DFL	Right
08	DFL	DFL	Right
09	DFL	Not called	Not called
10	GOP	GOP	Right
11	DFL	Not called	Not called
12	DFL	Not called	Not called
13	DFL	Not called	Not called
14	GOP	Not called	Not called
15	GOP	Not called	Not called
16	Open	Not called	Not called
17	DFL	Not called	Not called
18	GOP	Not called	Not called
19	GOP	GOP	Right
20	Open	DFL	Right
21	GOP	GOP	Right
22	DFL	Not called	Not called
23	DFL	Not called	Not called
24	DFL	Not called	Not called
25	GOP	Not called	Not called
26	GOP	Not called	Not called
27	GOP	Not called	Not called
28	DFL	Not called	Not called
29	Open	GOP	Right
30	IND	GOP	Wrong
31	GOP	Not called	Not called
32	GOP	GOP	Right
33	GOP	GOP	Right
34	Open	GOP	Right
35	GOP	GOP	Right
36	GOP	GOP	Right
37	GOP	GOP	Right
38	DFL	GOP	Right
39	DFL	Not called	Not called
40	GOP	GOP	Right
41	Open	GOP	Right
42	Open	GOP	Right
43	Open	GOP	Right
44	DFL	Not called	Not called
45	DFL	Not called	Not called
46	DFL	Not called	Not called
47	DFL	GOP	Wrong
48	Open	GOP	Right
49	GOP	GOP	Right
50	DFL	Not called	Not called
51	DFL	Not called	Not called
52	Paired	GOP	Right
53	GOP	GOP	Right
54	DFL	Not called	Not called
55	DFL	Not called	Not called
56	DFL	GOP	Right
57	Open	Not called	Not called
58	DFL	DFL	Right
59	DFL	DFL	Right
60	Open	DFL	Right
61	DFL	DFL	Right
62	Open	DFL	Right
63	DFL	Not called	Not called
64	DFL	DFL	Right
65	DFL	DFL	Right
66	DFL	DFL	Right
67	DFL	DFL	Right