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Exit polls show Cary voters like IRV

Exit polls from Cary’s first Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) election show voters like their new way of voting. The IRV ballot was easily understood by most voters and ranking candidates was preferred to voting for just one candidate.

The exit survey of over 1,600 voters was conducted by the North Carolina State University in partnership with the League of Women Voters and Cary Academy. It asked voters the following questions:

1) If they knew before heading to the polls if they would be asked to rank candidates on the ballot

2) If they prefer ranking candidates to avoid a runoff election

3) If ranking candidates was easy or hard to understand

4) If they ranked more than one candidate and, if they didn’t, why

5) To provide their age, income, race/ethnicity, gender and educational level so that analysts could assess if voters preference and understanding of IRV varies by any of these factors.

According to the University News Release, the survey found that:

  • Of those with a preference, 72 percent of Cary voters said they preferred IRV while just 28 percent said they preferred voting for a single candidate.
  • Almost everyone (96 percent) reported it was at least "somewhat easy to understand" the IRV ballot, with 82 percent agreeing that it was "very easy" to understand.
  • Most voters (69 percent) actually utilized the option of ranking at least two of the candidates for city council.
  • Among the minority of voters who did not rank more than one candidate and gave a reason why (480), only 29 percent (139) said the reason for not indicating a second choice was that they were confused about how the rankings would be used.
  • Voters were more likely to rank candidates in District B, which was the most competitive race where all three candidates failed to win an outright majority; voters in District B were more likely to prefer IRV.
  • The study found no significant differences between different types of voters in their understanding or preference for IRV: whites and non-whites, males and females, lower- and higher-income voters all evaluated IRV roughly equally.
  • Outreach efforts to inform voters ahead of time about IRV were largely successful. Seventy-six percent said they knew they would be asked to rank their preferences before coming to vote that day, and those who reported knowing about IRV in advance were more likely to rank more than one candidate and to prefer ranking candidates over voting for only one candidate.

These results are not surprising and are similar to those found in San Francisco, Burlington (VT) and Takoma Park (MD) when these cities first used Instant Runoff Voting.

An informal interview with Cary voters was also done as they left the polls. See results on You Tube. One senior voter says of IRV:

"It's very simple. Anyone could do it, even a five year old child."

In addition to the exit polls, Democracy North Carolina’s Bob Hall reports that Cary saved about $28,000 by not having to hold a separate district runoff election in November. If there were a city-wide runoff, the savings would have been $62,000. Only one council race went to a runoff and about two-thirds of the voters who ranked the eliminated candidate as their first choice ranked one of the two top candidates as their second choice and had a voice in deciding which of the top two would win. In the first round, Don Frantz gained 38% of the vote and Vickie Maxwell gained 35%. Frantz won the runoff by a margin of 48 votes.

Most exciting is how much greater voter participation was in helping decide the winners in Cary’s local election. Normally, there is a large drop-off in voter turnout from the first election to the runoff a month or so later (similar to low turnout in September primary elections). According to Bob Hall, by using preference voting, the drop-off in the runoff race was only 9%, meaning that 91% of the voters who cast a ballot in the District B race expressed a clear choice between the final two candidates through their rankings, and their preferences produced the winner.

San Francisco studies also show that voter participation is much higher in the current IRV elections than in the previous two-round runoff elections. In other words, drop-off was significantly greater when voters are asked to return to the polls for a separate runoff election.

Hendersonville, North Carolina, will also be using IRV for the first time on November 6th this year. Voters there will join veteran IRV voters in Cambridge (MA) and San Francisco (CA) and second-time IRV voters in Takoma Park (MD).

Stay tuned for election results.