All
three leading Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidates for governor hold firm
leads over Republican endorsee Tom Emmer, a new statewide poll shows.
The poll also showed Gov. Tim Pawlenty's popularity has sunk to a
new low.
In addition, it suggested Minnesotans are gloomy about the state
of their state. A lopsided majority thinks the North Star state is
headed in the wrong direction.
Decision Resources Ltd., of Minneapolis, conducted the survey of
800 Minnesota adults May 28-June 2. The margin of error is plus or minus
3.5 percentage points.
Among the three main DFL gubernatorial candidates, former U.S.
Sen. Mark Dayton has the biggest lead over Emmer, 40 percent to 28
percent.
House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the DFL-endorsed
candidate, led the GOP candidate, 38 percent to 28 percent.
Former House DFL Minority Leader Matt Entenza also topped Emmer,
34 percent to 27 percent.
Tom Horner, the Independence Party's endorsed candidate for
governor, finished third in all three trial heats, receiving 17 percent
to 19 percent of the vote.
Asked what the poll results mean, Decision Resources President
Bill Morris said, "The bounce that Emmer enjoyed after the Republican
convention is gone."
Immediately after the GOP convention in early May, a Survey USA
poll for KSTP-TV showed Emmer leading all three DFL candidates. A
Minnesota Public Radio/ Humphrey Institute poll conducted in mid-May
placed the Republican legislator from Delano in very tight races with his DFL rivals.
While Pawlenty has been expanding his national profile for a possible
campaign for president in 2012, Morris said the Republican governor got
his lowest approval rating ever from his constituents.
Only 37 percent of Minnesotans have a favorable impression of
Pawlenty, while 62 percent view him unfavorably, the poll found. By
contrast, President Barack Obama's ratings were 58 percent positive and
42 percent negative.
Even controversial House Speaker Nancy Pelosi fared better than
Pawlenty. While she tied his 37 percent favorable rating, she received a
much lower unfavorable number of 46 percent.
Minnesotans apparently think their state is in worse condition
than the nation. Fifty-nine percent said Minnesota is "off on the wrong
track," while 48 percent said that of the country.
A whopping 92 percent agreed that "state government spends too
much time arguing and not enough time solving problems." By 53 percent
to 42 percent, a majority said they are starting to believe "the problem
is not with one political party, but it is with all incumbents."
Based on those responses, Morris said, "People are fed up with
partisan gridlock, and they're looking for alternatives."
In another sign of voter cynicism, the poll found three out of
four respondents think elected officials are more likely to listen to
their favorite lobbyists and special interest groups than their
constituents.
Legislators now receive a fixed daily payment, called a per diem,
to cover expenses while the Legislature is in session. The poll found
85 percent of respondents favored replacing per diems with a system
requiring lawmakers to report their actual expenses for reimbursement.
Four in five support immediate public disclosure of any
contribution from a special-interest group or lobbyist.
Two-thirds favor a law requiring elected officials to resign from
their current position before becoming a candidate for a new office.
To help balance the state budget, respondents by a 3-to-1 ratio
favored allowing "racinos" to operate slot machines at Canterbury Park
and Running Aces horse racing tracks.
Sixty-three percent favored a two-year freeze in wages and
benefits for all state employees.
But four in five opposed cutting state payments to nursing homes
for their senior residents, and three in four were against cutting state
aid to K-12 public schools.
By nearly 2-to-1, respondents said Education Minnesota, the state
teachers' union, was more interested in "protecting their members'
salaries" than the quality of education.
The poll suggested Minnesotans are evenly split on the
traditional hot-button social issues:
21 percent said they would absolutely vote for a
candidate who opposes all abortions, except to save the life of the
mother, while 22 percent would absolutely vote against such a candidate.
21 percent said they would vote for a candidate who
supports a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, civil
unions and domestic partnerships. Nineteen percent would absolutely vote
against that candidate.
17 percent would absolutely vote for a candidate who
opposes further restrictions on gun ownership, while 16 percent would
absolutely vote against such a candidate.
The "tea party" has yet to catch fire in Minnesota, the poll showed.
Twenty percent of respondents supported the anti-big-government
movement, while 74 percent did not.
But 39 percent considered themselves conservatives, 36 percent
said they were moderates and 23 percent identified themselves as
liberals.
The political party breakdown was 39 percent Democratic, 32
percent Republican, 2 percent Independence Party and 24 percent
independents.
In releasing the poll results to the Pioneer Press, DRL President
Morris revealed that Himle-Horner, Inc., the public relations firm that
Horner co-founded, is a DRL client and that he personally supports
Horner for governor. But he said neither Himle-Horner nor the Horner
campaign paid for any part of the poll, and he said nothing in the poll
questions or methodology was intended to benefit Horner.
Bill Salisbury can be reached at 651-228-5538.
